Alcides Iván Meza
DOI: 10.59427/rcli/2024/v24.88-102
From year 1893 to 2020, seven extreme weather events have been recorded in Honduras. The event count follows a Poisson distribution with a $\lambda$ value equal to 1. The arrival intervals follow a continuous Exponential distribution with mean equal to 1, equivalent to a 21.17-years period. The occurrence of hurricanes as extreme weather events is a random discrete statistical variable; the arrival intervals have a modal value of 20 years, a lowerbound of 20 years and an upperbound of 24 years. The cumulative occurrence probability exceeds the cumulative non-occurrence probability at the 15-year threshold. These extreme events are strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO 3.4) indices. The average period of events’ occurrence coincides exactly with one-fourth the estimated extension range’s upper limit projecting the total AMO cycle, which is a range of 60-85 years. One extreme weather event coincides with a moderate El Niño, within a very prolonged period of predominantly neutral El Niño, as an exception; while for the remaining six events, all of them coincide with the onset or the intermediate period of a prolonged La Niña, just following after a predominantly moderate or strong El Niño.
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