Miguel I. Silva Borges

DOI: 10.59427/rcli/2023/v23.125-138

Managing climate information that allows adequate strategic agricultural planning favors the success of crops, especially in rainfed agriculture. Farmers generally do not have raw data or tools that facilitate carrying out such planning. In this research, maps of the dates of beginnings and probable durations of 75 percent of the periods of water availability were elaborated using ordinary kriging, in the region of the plains of Venezuela with reference precipitation and evapotranspiration data on a monthly scale, which they were projected under climate change through the SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios and the GISS-E2-1-G model for some stations. The spatial behavior of the dates and durations of the mentioned periods was visualized, and in turn, the influence of the factors that generate rainfall in the study area was verified. Early onset and longer period durations were evidenced in much of the western plains, as opposed to the eastern plains, owing to the distinctive environmental conditions of the region. For future projections, a particular behavior of the periods between the seasons was appreciated, where the wet period would suffer the greatest changes compared to the baseline, predicting a future with less time water available for crops in some locations.

Pág. 125-138, 14-Nov,