Dirk R. Thielen, Mary L. Puche, Paolo Ramoni Perazzi, José I. Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Ezequiel Zamora Ledezma, Alberto Quintero, Marco Marquez, Wilmer Rojas

DOI: 10.59427/rcli/2024/v24.22-43

This is the first study that addresses the problem generated by the current occurrence of unprecedented widespread ocean warming, at a speed and intensity not foreseen in any of the pre-existing models, with proven capacity to affect, significantly and within a few months, precipitations in much of the territory of Venezuela and the region. Relative to this problem, the research provides information on the following core aspects: 1- The evolution and dynamics of extreme climate events in Venezuela, 2- Their origin and determining factors, and 3- Reliable forecasts based on identified determinants and current trends. The results indicate that more than 25% of precipitation in Venezuela is associated with the occurrence of extreme events. Where, sea surface water warming of the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic have generated the main and most intense historical humid pulses. As for the main droughts, these are better explained by the occurrence of “Niño Atlántico” events, instead of global El Niño (the warm phase of ENSO). Until the current widespread oceanic warming is reversed, in Venezuela, the spatially and temporally extensive pulses of extreme drought, generated mainly by a quasi-permanent Atlantic Niño condition, will be recurrent climatic phenomena that will alternate with those extreme humid pulses, generated by the simultaneous warming of the waters of the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic. The humid pulses, although extreme, would in turn be brief, linked to an exacerbation of yearly cyclonic activity resulting from the persistence of warm waters in this section of the Atlantic basin.

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